Oral Presentation Australian Society for Microbiology Annual Scientific Meeting 2017

Ross River virus transmission, emergence and multiscale ecoepidemiology (#11)

Emily J. Flies 1 , Philip Weinstein 2
  1. School of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia
  2. School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Ross river virus (RRV) is the most common arbovirus (Alphavirus) in Australia and causes polyarthritic disease in 1400-9000 people each year. The range of RRV has historically been restricted to the extent its macropod (i.e. kangaroo family) reservoir hosts: Australia and New Guinea. However, recent evidence suggests that this zoonotic infection is being transmitted in absence of macropods, positioning it for potential global emergence. Considering this threat, we explore the factors that influence RRV epidemiology from a multi-scale ecological perspective. Most infectious disease transmission cycles involve multiple processes that act on different spatial scales. This is particularly true for zoonotic vector-borne diseases which have vectors, humans and reservoir hosts influenced by habitat and climate factors, all of which are interacting on microhabitat to landscape scales. Since the appropriate scale may not be known for each variable of interest, a logical alternative is to study a disease system at various spatial scales and integrate the findings to create a holistic picture of the drivers of disease. We present a three-scale analysis of RRV that includes variables across the five main components of transmission ecology (human, virus, vector, reservoir host and habitat). We compare variable significance at a fine scale (~7 km2) to two coarser scales often used in analyses (up to 194 km2). We confirm that covariate importance shifts across spatial scales; generally, biotic variables were more important at the finer scales and abiotic variables were more important at the coarser scale. Some covariates do not appear important at some spatial scales but do at others, underlining the necessity of multi-scale analyses especially for infections with complex transmission ecologies. Through our multi-scale approach, we identify novel drivers and recommend public health interventions at various scales. We conclude by considering how this information could impact the potential for RRV to follow Chikungunya and Zika as a globally emerging arbovirus.